Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 0.017465 0.019790 0.022313 0.025256 0.028594 0.032267 0.036615
2025-06-22 0.013182 0.016234 0.019833 0.024396 0.030033 0.036778 0.045477
2025-06-29 0.011001 0.014334 0.018494 0.024075 0.031382 0.040644 0.053311
2025-07-06 0.009266 0.012642 0.017052 0.023251 0.031761 0.043069 0.059298
2025-07-13 0.008516 0.012093 0.016960 0.024083 0.034276 0.048394 0.069534
2025-07-20 0.007840 0.011539 0.016755 0.024671 0.036430 0.053334 0.079630
2025-07-27 0.007324 0.011138 0.016696 0.025415 0.038818 0.058752 0.090868
2025-08-03 0.006651 0.010423 0.016087 0.025247 0.039777 0.062077 0.099184
2025-08-10 0.006111 0.009848 0.015620 0.025226 0.040919 0.065723 0.108269
2025-08-17 0.005550 0.009181 0.014939 0.024782 0.041311 0.068171 0.115575
2025-08-24 0.005209 0.008836 0.014734 0.025078 0.042915 0.072680 0.126672
2025-08-31 0.004819 0.008370 0.014285 0.024912 0.043704 0.075860 0.135729
2025-09-07 0.004611 0.008205 0.014337 0.025632 0.046121 0.082097 0.150888
2025-09-14 0.004162 0.007576 0.013537 0.024778 0.045671 0.083261 0.156978
2025-09-21 0.003843 0.007152 0.013058 0.024452 0.046130 0.086064 0.166324
2025-09-28 0.003485 0.006622 0.012341 0.023614 0.045549 0.086875 0.171899
2025-10-05 0.003388 0.006575 0.012508 0.024459 0.048242 0.094078 0.190628
2025-10-12 0.003265 0.006466 0.012548 0.025057 0.050496 0.100607 0.208595
2025-10-19 0.003169 0.006401 0.012664 0.025813 0.053124 0.108081 0.229181
2025-10-26 0.002976 0.006123 0.012339 0.025642 0.053836 0.111732 0.242039
2025-11-02 0.002814 0.005896 0.012097 0.025621 0.054852 0.116080 0.256778
2025-11-09 0.002622 0.005591 0.011669 0.025170 0.054907 0.118399 0.267245
2025-11-16 0.002516 0.005461 0.011595 0.025470 0.056616 0.124398 0.286515